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England v Portugal Preview
28/06/2006: Although England don't have a good record against the Portuguese, Sporting Index have still got them as favourites to win by 0.3 to 0.5 goals on their
"Supremacy" market. This is influenced by the fact that Portugal are missing both Deco and Costinha through suspension. However, Big Phil has proven to be Sven's nemesis twice before in the big competitions. He managed to beat England with 10 men in Shizuoka in 2002 when Ronaldinho was sent off. Two
years later he successfully changed formation in Lisbon after Rooney was forced off through injury. With the influential Figo available, and Ronaldo
looking likely to figure, Scolari could dash English hopes for a third successive tournament.
On top of this, Scolari has never lost a World Cup match. In fact, the 11 straight victories he has enjoyed with Brazil in 2002 and now Portugal is a
record. His current team has also not lost a match (competitive or friendly) since the Euro 2004 final. On the other hand, England are still unbeaten in
Germany. Although Sven's team have only scored five goals so far, Portugal have only managed six. On the back of this, and the other low-scoring matches in this round, Sporting Index predict a total of just 2.1 to 2.3 goals will be scored in 90 minutes.
So in this battle of wits between the Swedish iceman and Big Phil, formation will be key. In the Ecuador match, Carrick made more passes than any other
England player, (66 in total, 57 successful). He also spent significantly longer on the ball (196.9 seconds) than anyone else - Ashley Cole is in
second place with 156 seconds. However, Carrick didn't make a single tackle (Terry topped that list, with 5). In fact, England's three central midfielders only made one between them.
Although the boy wonder Rooney had the lowest possession of any England player at just 84.5 seconds, he looks ready to start scoring. With his Goal Minutes priced up at 14 to 17, you'd expect to see plenty of punters betting high at 17 minutes. Lampard may have missed an impressive 18 shots so far, but he's doing something right to have had so many goes and England's top scorer in the qualifiers has got to get lucky sooner or later; he is
available at 11 to 14 minutes. Even though Pauleta has been quiet by his standards (many tipped him for the Golden Boot), his spread of 10 to 13 also looks tempting.
Bookings are likely to figure prominently in the betting as well. So far, there has been an average of 5.6 yellow cards per match across the tournament. England have been given seven cards over four matches, whereas Portugal have an impressive 18. Although this includes nine cards earned in their very negative match against Holland, a "grudge" match like this could get feisty. has a price of 68 to 72 points on their Bookings market (10 points for a yellow card, 25 for red). Having seen Portugal v Holland settle at 220 points (four red and 16 yellow cards), there won't be many punters betting low on Saturday.
Total Tournament Yellow Cards
At the start of this tournament, predicted the total number of yellow cards shown in all 64 matches was 270 to 280. As more and more
have been dished out, this price has moved up and up, currently standing at 326 to 330 (276 cards shown after 54 matches). With 10 matches to go,
there's still plenty of time to take an interest in this market.
Hopefully that's given you something to think about. For all the latest prices and to apply for your Sporting Index account, click here
Sporting Index is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
All prices correct at time of writing. The information contained herein is for your general information and use. In particular, it does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by Sporting Index Ltd and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining to make) any
specific decisions.
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Comments on: England v Portugal Preview
28/06/2006: I hope that Portugal wins because they have never won the WC. England had won the WC before so I would give it to Portugal.
29/06/2006: I'm just amazed that portugal has made it this far. They do tend to let their emotions dictate their play.
30/06/2006: come on portugal
30/06/2006: Portugal - 3, England - 1
01/07/2006: England will outclass Portugal. It won't be easy, but England will come through
01/07/2006: You know you can do it. You deserve to be in the final 4. Not only do they play with technique, they also play with their heart. Come on Portugal.
01/07/2006: I can't believe you people honestly think Portugal are going to win this game.
31/07/2007: Hello! Good Site! Thanks you!
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